fuckyeahcubs: nunda: Chicago Cubs 2010 preview continued… The Position Players: There’s not much to guess about when it comes to the Cubs everyday starters.  With the exception of Marlon Byrd in center this is the exact same ball club that walked out into the friendly confines to start last season.  Does that mean they can’t be better than they were last year? No.  They had some key injuries last year but this team, as with all, is not without its questions. They range from a lack of a true lead off hitter and free-swinging sluggers to ageing and injury prone veterans and a thin bench.  The good news is that no team enters a season without questions.  Let’s dig in. The Infield: Catcher:  Geovany Soto:  2008 rookie of the year, dramatic fall off in 2009.  The ghost of Jerome Walton perhaps?  Maybe.  Soto struggled last year with a few different stints on the DL and it didn’t help that he came into the season about twenty pounds overweight.  It’s impossible to be that big and sit behind the plate everyday in the hard afternoon sun and not have it effect performance.  The great thing about Soto is that even if his offense isn’t there he’s a hell of a defensive catcher who works a pitching staff like a veteran.  Any offense you can get out of him is gravy but the Cubs are going to need some gravy.  I have high hopes for Soto, he’s been moved to the eighth spot which should remove some pressure from him and may give the Cubs some pop at the tail end of the order.  Koyie Hill: No surprises.  A veteran back up catcher who can spell Soto, give a solid performance behind the plate and provide the occasional bit of offense.  He’s a good number two who always comes to play. First Base:  D Lee:  Lee had a great year last year, one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal and frustrated offense.  He’s a leader, a stoic veteran presence and he’s in the top three defensive first basemen in the NL.  The question with Lee will be health, the guy is my age, has a history back and neck problems and has already missed a few games this spring.  The Cubs need him to hit .290 with 30+ Hr’s and 100+Rbi.  Basically he needs to match last season, which was arguably the second best of his career.   Chad Tracy:  Solid back up that can play both corners of the infield and give a bit of pop from the left side of the plate.  I really like this addition, Tracy has struggled with some injuries but he’s a proven commodity who can fill a gap we are likely to need filled.  It’s hard to argue that this club would have been in much better shape last year when Ramirez went down if Tracy had been available.  The Cubs have to hope he’ll be used sparingly but with the health histories of Lee and Ramirez, it’s hard to believe he wont see significant time in the line up. Second Base:  Mike Fontenot:  Little Babe Ruth as Ronnie likes to call him.  Well, he hit 9 dingers in 135 games last year, that is a very little Babe Ruth.  Fontenot can be a solid pinch hitter and seems to produce best when used in spot starts.  He has yet to prove himself as an everyday starter. Because of this he is likely to be used in a lefty/righty platoon with Jeff Baker, Fontenot playing against righties and Baker against lefties.  Jeff Baker:  Nothing to get terribly excited about but Baker is a solid big leaguer.  He is what he is and isn’t likely to blow up and produce an all star numbers.  The hope is that moving he and Fontenot around a bit the Cubs can get good defense up the middle and the occasional bit of offense.  Baker can also play third in a pinch which is always helpful. Third Base:  Aramis Ramirez:  The Cubs best all around hitter.  Ramirez has been with the team longer than any other position player, coming over from the Bucko’s in 2003, he provided a big boost for the Cubs cataclysmic rise and stunning descent into suicidal frustration.  The memory doesn’t make me bitter. I deal with by picking a night in early October each year, calling Alex Gonzalez at three am, and unleashing a barrage of unholy obscenities.  I know, it’s rude, but the world is a rude place and it makes me feel better.  I’m sure it’s nothing near to what Red Sox fans forced Buckner to deal with for near on twenty years. I digress. Ramirez will likely be the deciding factor of whether or not the Cubs can compete in the NL Central this year.  There is nothing that can replace his offensive output.  He needs to play in 140+ games and match his career numbers if the second half is to be anything more than a minor league testing ground.  Shortstop:  Ryan Theriot:  He’s a proven major league player, solid if not spectacular defensively and a great guy in the two hole.  Theriot is that rare thing in the Cubs lineup, a reasonably patient hitter who can work a count and has a good OBP.   It may end up that you see Theriot in the lead off role, flip flopping with Fukudome.  The important thing for Theriot and the Cubs is that he stays healthy, as there is no real solid back up.  If he goes down the middle infield becomes Fontenot and Baker.  That does not a competitive ball club make.     The Outfield:  Alfonso Soriano:  8 years 100+ Million to a guy who is over thirty years old, has no true spot in the batting order, refuses to take a walk, waves at breaking pitches like he’s at a parade and plays the field like a bear on skates.  Did I mention that leg problems have essentially wiped out his ability to steal bases.  Don’t worry there’s only five years to go on that back loaded contract Hendry signed him to.  Most estimates say that Hendry’s offer to Soriano doubled the number of years and money that anyone else was willing to offer him.  That may be a bit extreme, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving the guy more than a five year deal worth 80 –90 million.  The truth is that this is Hendry’s gaff, it is a daily reminder that he is not cut out to be a GM in this league and that the Cubs will never win until he is shipped off to fat camp.  The only people that can make moves this dumb and gloss them over with their bank accounts live in New York and Boston.  The sad fact is that Hendry has fucked the team and fans not only this year but for some years to come.  No significant free agent signings will be possible until the club can get out from under the ridiculous financial guarantees he’s made to aging stars. Right, Soriano:  He’s a got a great smile and a decent arm but it’s hard to imagine that he’ll produce much at all.  I’d book it at 100+ K’s, 25 Hr’s and under 75 RBI.  Not stellar numbers for a guy getting paid $17,000,000 this year.  We can hope but don’t hold your breath. Center Field:  Marlon Byrd:  The only significant free agent signing of the off-season, Byrd has the potential to be a bright spot.  He hit over.280 last year and hit 20 home runs with 89 RBI.  Those are near career numbers but if he can do it again the Cubs will receive a much-needed boost in the offensive performance of the outfield.  As far as the field is concerned, Byrd is big, 6’ and 245 but the word is that he gets good jumps on the ball and can go get it pretty well.  At least he’s a proven center fielder, something the Cubs have been missing for several years. Right Field:  Kosuke Fukudome:  Another Hendry Gaff, Fukudome will make $12,500,000 this year.  That’s a lot of loot for a guy who batted .259 last year with 11 HR’s and 54 RBI. Imagine paying Mike Fontenot that kind of cash.  Regardless of salary there are some ways in which Fukudome helps this ball club.  He takes pitches, he gets on base and he plays a solid field.  If Fukudome can do those things and set the table for the middle of the order it will be an immense help and a small success. Back Up’s:  Xavier Nady:  Coming off of double Tommy John surgery he played in only seven games last year.  According to Hendry he’s a solid five-hole guy.  Whatever Jim, quit insulting my intelligence and shove that blintz in your mouth.  Nady, assuming he is healthy and able to produce will be able to make some spot starts, spell a likely injured Soriano and give us a veteran bat on the bench.  A good pick up but don’t piss on my head and tell me it’s raining.  Tyler Colvin:  He’s a rookie who came up towards the end of last season but his time was too limited to make any real judgments.  He did tear up Double-A Tennessee last year and is one of the more highly touted prospects in the Cubs system.  It would be great to see him come up and do good things but keep in mind it’s an outfielder in the Cubs farm system, think Corey Patterson and Felix Pie.  Anything he gives the team is gravy. The Truth:  We’ve read this book before, have been reading it for the last three years at least.  There is no reason to expect this group to be either great or terrible.  This is at worst a 75-win team and at best a 90-win team.  The upper end of that competes for a wildcard spot and potentially the division, while the bottom end is an extraordinarily expensive also ran.  Best case scenario:  It’s hard to decide, would you rather see this team compete and run the risk of Hendry keeping his job and ticket prices rising again. Or would it be better to watch the house burn and get down to the business of rebuilding the aging base.  My feeling is, let the rebuilding begin, this core group is past its prime and will never give Cubs fans the World Series title they want.  It pains me to say it but it’s time to get a professional front office in place and wait a few more years. Piniella says it’s time for the Cubs to win the World Series.  I’ve seen a few (a very few) sports people saying that they think the Cubs can do it this year.  I just don’t see it.  Our pitching’s old and not that good to begin with.  And our hitting is, well, old and not that good to begin with.  I’m hoping maybe Piniella knows something that I don’t.

fuckyeahcubs:

nunda: Chicago Cubs 2010 preview continued…

The Position Players:

There’s not much to guess about when it comes to the Cubs everyday starters.  With the exception of Marlon Byrd in center this is the exact same ball club that walked out into the friendly confines to start last season.  Does that mean they can’t be better than they were last year? No.  They had some key injuries last year but this team, as with all, is not without its questions. They range from a lack of a true lead off hitter and free-swinging sluggers to ageing and injury prone veterans and a thin bench.  The good news is that no team enters a season without questions.  Let’s dig in.

The Infield:

Catcher:

 Geovany Soto:  2008 rookie of the year, dramatic fall off in 2009.  The ghost of Jerome Walton perhaps?  Maybe.  Soto struggled last year with a few different stints on the DL and it didn’t help that he came into the season about twenty pounds overweight.  It’s impossible to be that big and sit behind the plate everyday in the hard afternoon sun and not have it effect performance.  The great thing about Soto is that even if his offense isn’t there he’s a hell of a defensive catcher who works a pitching staff like a veteran.  Any offense you can get out of him is gravy but the Cubs are going to need some gravy.  I have high hopes for Soto, he’s been moved to the eighth spot which should remove some pressure from him and may give the Cubs some pop at the tail end of the order.

 Koyie Hill: No surprises.  A veteran back up catcher who can spell Soto, give a solid performance behind the plate and provide the occasional bit of offense.  He’s a good number two who always comes to play.

First Base:

 D Lee:  Lee had a great year last year, one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal and frustrated offense.  He’s a leader, a stoic veteran presence and he’s in the top three defensive first basemen in the NL.  The question with Lee will be health, the guy is my age, has a history back and neck problems and has already missed a few games this spring.  The Cubs need him to hit .290 with 30+ Hr’s and 100+Rbi.  Basically he needs to match last season, which was arguably the second best of his career. 

 Chad Tracy:  Solid back up that can play both corners of the infield and give a bit of pop from the left side of the plate.  I really like this addition, Tracy has struggled with some injuries but he’s a proven commodity who can fill a gap we are likely to need filled.  It’s hard to argue that this club would have been in much better shape last year when Ramirez went down if Tracy had been available.  The Cubs have to hope he’ll be used sparingly but with the health histories of Lee and Ramirez, it’s hard to believe he wont see significant time in the line up.

Second Base:

 Mike Fontenot:  Little Babe Ruth as Ronnie likes to call him.  Well, he hit 9 dingers in 135 games last year, that is a very little Babe Ruth.  Fontenot can be a solid pinch hitter and seems to produce best when used in spot starts.  He has yet to prove himself as an everyday starter. Because of this he is likely to be used in a lefty/righty platoon with Jeff Baker, Fontenot playing against righties and Baker against lefties.

 Jeff Baker:  Nothing to get terribly excited about but Baker is a solid big leaguer.  He is what he is and isn’t likely to blow up and produce an all star numbers.  The hope is that moving he and Fontenot around a bit the Cubs can get good defense up the middle and the occasional bit of offense.  Baker can also play third in a pinch which is always helpful.

Third Base:

 Aramis Ramirez:  The Cubs best all around hitter.  Ramirez has been with the team longer than any other position player, coming over from the Bucko’s in 2003, he provided a big boost for the Cubs cataclysmic rise and stunning descent into suicidal frustration.  The memory doesn’t make me bitter. I deal with by picking a night in early October each year, calling Alex Gonzalez at three am, and unleashing a barrage of unholy obscenities.  I know, it’s rude, but the world is a rude place and it makes me feel better.  I’m sure it’s nothing near to what Red Sox fans forced Buckner to deal with for near on twenty years. I digress.

Ramirez will likely be the deciding factor of whether or not the Cubs can compete in the NL Central this year.  There is nothing that can replace his offensive output.  He needs to play in 140+ games and match his career numbers if the second half is to be anything more than a minor league testing ground. 

Shortstop:

 Ryan Theriot:  He’s a proven major league player, solid if not spectacular defensively and a great guy in the two hole.  Theriot is that rare thing in the Cubs lineup, a reasonably patient hitter who can work a count and has a good OBP.   It may end up that you see Theriot in the lead off role, flip flopping with Fukudome.  The important thing for Theriot and the Cubs is that he stays healthy, as there is no real solid back up.  If he goes down the middle infield becomes Fontenot and Baker.  That does not a competitive ball club make.    

The Outfield:

 Alfonso Soriano:  8 years 100+ Million to a guy who is over thirty years old, has no true spot in the batting order, refuses to take a walk, waves at breaking pitches like he’s at a parade and plays the field like a bear on skates.  Did I mention that leg problems have essentially wiped out his ability to steal bases.  Don’t worry there’s only five years to go on that back loaded contract Hendry signed him to.  Most estimates say that Hendry’s offer to Soriano doubled the number of years and money that anyone else was willing to offer him.  That may be a bit extreme, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving the guy more than a five year deal worth 80 –90 million.  The truth is that this is Hendry’s gaff, it is a daily reminder that he is not cut out to be a GM in this league and that the Cubs will never win until he is shipped off to fat camp.  The only people that can make moves this dumb and gloss them over with their bank accounts live in New York and Boston.  The sad fact is that Hendry has fucked the team and fans not only this year but for some years to come.  No significant free agent signings will be possible until the club can get out from under the ridiculous financial guarantees he’s made to aging stars.

Right, Soriano:  He’s a got a great smile and a decent arm but it’s hard to imagine that he’ll produce much at all.  I’d book it at 100+ K’s, 25 Hr’s and under 75 RBI.  Not stellar numbers for a guy getting paid $17,000,000 this year.  We can hope but don’t hold your breath.

Center Field:

 Marlon Byrd:  The only significant free agent signing of the off-season, Byrd has the potential to be a bright spot.  He hit over.280 last year and hit 20 home runs with 89 RBI.  Those are near career numbers but if he can do it again the Cubs will receive a much-needed boost in the offensive performance of the outfield.  As far as the field is concerned, Byrd is big, 6’ and 245 but the word is that he gets good jumps on the ball and can go get it pretty well.  At least he’s a proven center fielder, something the Cubs have been missing for several years.

Right Field:

 Kosuke Fukudome:  Another Hendry Gaff, Fukudome will make $12,500,000 this year.  That’s a lot of loot for a guy who batted .259 last year with 11 HR’s and 54 RBI. Imagine paying Mike Fontenot that kind of cash.  Regardless of salary there are some ways in which Fukudome helps this ball club.  He takes pitches, he gets on base and he plays a solid field.  If Fukudome can do those things and set the table for the middle of the order it will be an immense help and a small success.

Back Up’s:

 Xavier Nady:  Coming off of double Tommy John surgery he played in only seven games last year.  According to Hendry he’s a solid five-hole guy.  Whatever Jim, quit insulting my intelligence and shove that blintz in your mouth.  Nady, assuming he is healthy and able to produce will be able to make some spot starts, spell a likely injured Soriano and give us a veteran bat on the bench.  A good pick up but don’t piss on my head and tell me it’s raining.

 Tyler Colvin:  He’s a rookie who came up towards the end of last season but his time was too limited to make any real judgments.  He did tear up Double-A Tennessee last year and is one of the more highly touted prospects in the Cubs system.  It would be great to see him come up and do good things but keep in mind it’s an outfielder in the Cubs farm system, think Corey Patterson and Felix Pie.  Anything he gives the team is gravy.

The Truth: 

We’ve read this book before, have been reading it for the last three years at least.  There is no reason to expect this group to be either great or terrible.  This is at worst a 75-win team and at best a 90-win team.  The upper end of that competes for a wildcard spot and potentially the division, while the bottom end is an extraordinarily expensive also ran.  Best case scenario:  It’s hard to decide, would you rather see this team compete and run the risk of Hendry keeping his job and ticket prices rising again. Or would it be better to watch the house burn and get down to the business of rebuilding the aging base.  My feeling is, let the rebuilding begin, this core group is past its prime and will never give Cubs fans the World Series title they want.  It pains me to say it but it’s time to get a professional front office in place and wait a few more years.

Piniella says it’s time for the Cubs to win the World Series.  I’ve seen a few (a very few) sports people saying that they think the Cubs can do it this year.  I just don’t see it.  Our pitching’s old and not that good to begin with.  And our hitting is, well, old and not that good to begin with.  I’m hoping maybe Piniella knows something that I don’t.